Playing The Odds In Life

Money will help with that, but it is a lesser goal, and only important to the extent to which it helps promote the primary goal.

Actually, you have to go beyond the odds of winning the hand, which are merely “event-odds.” The odds of a specific event occurring (your hand winning) aren’t enough information. No one can understand better than you what you value and how you value it, or even how capable you are in a given area. This is what we already do intuitively. Life, after all, is all about making decisions, and we need some guide for making better ones.

Using Probabilitism

Your Investment Odds

The most common explicit guide to decision making is morality. Now to apply this to life decisions.

In the last round of betting, you have three kings. For deep thoughts, inventions, new product ideas, business ideas, story ideas, political and economic theories, and a free course on How To Have New Ideas, visit :

Probabilitism? I just invented the word to describe an ideology of living life according to the odds, or more specifically, making decisions according to them. However, this only eliminates some choices, leaving us with a sub-set of acceptable ones. Essentially, this is the idea of investment odds operating at an intuitive or unconscious level.

From that intuitive part of the process, probabilitism extracts the general idea of making choices based on the probabilities of them giving us the most of what we value. You must be the one to decide what “numbers” to plug into a formula like this.. Researching the two professions you discover that the average novelist makes just $3,000 per year, while as a lawyer you are virtually guaranteed a decent living. This premise is sound, but our knowledge just isn’t up to task of identifying the true odds or the true value of things when it comes to an individual life and the decisions in it. Your investment odds are above 1 (above 100% return according to the odds), meaning this is a good bet, the kind you’ll win with over time. Probabilitism makes it a more conscious and hopefully more effective process.

Author’s Bio:

Copyright Steve Gillman. In the rest of life there are many goals and values, so you have to recognize the most important one in this case. The odds of being a successful writer are far lower, and you think you could be satisfied with either career, so you figure the probability of being happy as a lawyer is slightly better.

You can keep the basic idea in mind as you make decisions, and let your intuition operate according to its guiding principle. The bet is $40 to you. You also need to take into account the amount you’ll win and the amount you’ll bet. You estimate that you have a 1-in-5 probability of winning if you stay to the end. Here is the exact formula: [(Expected size of pot)(Probability of winning)] / (Your total bet from this point on).

Now you look at each possible choice. Your investment is also lower. How can you use this then?

Naturally, these various factors, from how much you enjoy the process, to how probable success is, are individual. Many people, for example, face a decision like whether to go get a job or to start a business. We all do this intuitively already. With these many possible options, we have just the usual guides to decision and action, which include feelings, advice from others, and our general intuition about which choices are better.

This isn’t enough information, however, because you haven’t taken into account your investment odds. If, for whatever reason, the odds of him being a star are low enough, and he could be content inheriting his father’s business, choosing the latter would be the right decision. Let’s consider this from another perspective, that of a man who would be far happier succeeding as a movie star than in business. This amount divided by your expected $40 bet equals 1.25. The probability of success in the restaurant business may be 15% in general, for example, but you may be so committed and prepared that you have a 85% probability of succeeding. You might see that the highest possible level of life-satisfaction is of primary importance. For example, when a man isn’t sure whether to start a business or keep his job, his intuition may at some point urge him to go for the business, because it has a higher probability of rewarding him according to what he values. To make this an explicit ideology for making decisions in life, we need to understand the idea of “investment odds,” a term used by poker players.

The “numbers” in such “life calculations” as these are guesses, and not even very educated ones, so probabilitism isn’t ready to be a systematic tool for decision making. The chance of success is lower, but if you do succeed, you’ll have much more satisfaction n your life. Should you stay?

Throw Away The Numbers

Is it better for you to be a lawyer or a novelist? Can you make this decision rationally? In poker there is one clear goal – making money. If you bet with bad investment odds (below 1), you’ll eventually lose money. You also need to take into account the “bet” or investment (time, stress, reputation, money, work) and the amount of the reward or “pot” (profits, pleasure, ability to help others, peace of mind, satisfaction,). To be a lawyer, you would have to go through years of schooling that you don’t enjoy, and work hard to pay for it, but you enjoy the work of writing, and can start with very little money.

You expect a pot of $250, which you multiply by the probability of winning (.2, also expressed as 20% or 1-in-5), to arrive at $50. It seems likely that many lives have been diminished by chasing after low-probability dreams when high-probability alternatives with a decent reward were there for the choosing.

The idea, then, is to play the odds, but not just the odds of success. But some choose to go for the business route anyhow, because even if it requires failing several times, the potential “jackpot” is far larger, both in terms of money and personal satisfaction and freedom. The reward or “pot” in this case, is potentially much higher in the case of being a novelist. In terms of making money next year, the odds are much better with the job of course, and people know that

Sports :: Bowling Tips for the 2-4-6 Spare

The two starting positions in this system are the strike starting position and the 10-pin starting position. A four-board shift in the target will knock over the 4-pin(6-pin for left-handed bowlers), and a six-board adjustment will knock over the 7-pin(10-pin for left-handed bowlers). Sometimes players aren’t able to move their feet because the ball return may be in the way, or the player might be playing on an end-lane, which is near a wall.

The 3-6-9 spare system is the most commonly taught system, but the 2-4-6 system may be the most accurate system for picking up spares. Also, like the 3-6-9 system players can adjust the movements to fit their own personal bowling style, and create the most accurate way of picking up spare.

The 2-4-6 spare system is also known as the Swedish Spare System, and is usually recommended for advanced bowlers. Players should visually target the two, four, or six boards off of the key line in order to pick up spares. The 2-4-6 spare system also works for left-handed bowlers. In these instances, moving the feet can create problems in the 3-6-9 spare system. When players are trying to knock down the six-pin, the target should be moved four boards to the right. Using the system can help players become more confident in there “spare-getting” abilities. In the 2-4-6 system the feet are not moved opposed to the 3-6-9 system. There are also two aiming targets in the 2-4-6 system; the strike aim and the 10-pin aim, used for all the spare combinations. The spare system can give bowlers many advantages. For left-handed bowlers are trying to pick up the 10-pin spare, the target arrow should be moved six boards to the right.

If a player has a strike-line (the yellow line) of 17-10, then that player can deliver the ball two more boards inside in order to knock over the next pin(2-pin for right-handed players, and 3-pin for left-handed players). Like the 3-6-9 system, players must adjust off the corner-pin line to pick up their spares on the other side of the lane. The system is not as widely used as the 3-6-9 spare system, but it is one of the most popular basic spare systems. When using this system for picking up spares, the bowler must be able to bowl on the arrows, and able to bowl on the boards between the arrows. The use of the 2-4-6 system is applicable on all lane conditions, so players don’t have to worry about any problems that might arise when trying to pick up spares.

All players that use the 2-4-6 system should not move their feet, if they want to pick up their spares effectively. Two starting positions are used on the approach in the 2-4-6 spare system. The 2-4-6 system is not simple, so it is most commonly used by professionals. However, using the 2-4-6 method is the best way to avoid problems, and to accurately pick up spares in all conditions. If the player is trying to pick of the 3-pin spare, then the target should be moved two boards to the right. . The left-handed players who start from the far left side of the approach are able to use the 2-4-6 system effectively. The targets should always be moved, but the feet should remain in the same starting place each time. In this system the feet remain in the same place, and players must visually adjust the target. The starting position will remain the same, but the target will change depending on the spare that must be made

Some Golf Grip Tips To Improve Your Golf Game by Tom Ghormley

When you think about it though, the full swing action begins with the golf grip, which will need to boost its relevance in getting it correct.

As you start looking down at your target side hand pay notice to the angle it hangs. No matter what the number, this is your body’s way of informing you its natural predisposition and that is the neutral angle for your golf grip.

It can make no distinction whether you use an overlapping, interlocking, or ten-finger grip. It isn’t going to matter how many you see. You under no circumstances want the thumbs to apply any pressure. That golf grip is when your arm hangs straight down from the shoulder socket and the direction of your target side hand. . Shut the fingers and then shut the hand with the heel pad on top of the shaft with the thumb to the rear of the shaft.This provides force from the heel pad downward and the last three fingers apply pressure upwards. Remain relaxed, there ought to be no stiffness in your arms or hands. The right forefinger should be segregated, in a “triggering position”, yet with no pressure. Last but not least, as a way for the hands to perform together, they need to be parallel to each other.This might all appear tricky, but try it and see for yourself if discovering the proper grip angle doesn’t enhance your shots.

If your golf grip does not work, why should anything that comes after work?There is a unbiased grip for any golf enthusiast.

Then take the lifeline of the trailing hand, situated between the thumb and heel pads, and position it on the thumb of the target side hand.The lifeline towards the thumb exerts the pressure. Whenever you place your target side hand on the golf club it ought to be at the identical angle you just saw.The golf club then extends diagonally from in between the first and second joint of the index finger to the bottom part of the pinkie finger.

You may well be shocked or at least taken aback at how many players there are who work typically on their swing action but hardly ever (if ever) work on their golf grip. A number of of you will view two knuckles of the hand, many can see three, and a few could even see four. It is crucial to fully grasp that the forefinger and target side thumb both be on the similar side and angle of the shaft for the perfect support.

The majority of golfers find that their target side arm hangs anywhere in between the midsection of the target side thigh to the inside of the thigh, based on the width of foot position and or the width of the upper body.

The trailing thumb ought to be on the target side of the shaft.

In this instance, I mean the golf grip of their hands, not the rubber grip on the shaft. What IS crucial is the slope the club is placed in your hand.To uncover your neutral grip, to begin with take your address spot, but without having a golf club, and make it possible for both arms to hang downward from the shoulders

Teams Most Likely to Win

The only other time the tournament was held on their shores, they were runners-up. They have won the World Cup 4 times, only second to Brazil, and know what it takes to reach the top.




(Arena da Baixada)



The Brazilian Samba!

Brazil has appeared in each and every World Cup, having won it 5 times, more than any other nation.


Belo Horizonte

(Estdio Mineiro)



Group C

Disclaimer: This Buzzle article is solely for entertainment and information purposes, and does not in any way promote the concept of betting.

Group A



Porto Alegre

(Estdio Beira-Rio)




Brazil has to be one of the favorites for this World Cup. Besides, they are the current number 1 ranked side in the world, and since quite some time, may I add.

Serious Contenders

Italy is one team that can go all the way here. Half the planet will be tuned in to the extravaganza, which is the most watched sports tournament in the world. This does not mean that they will just come and go! Mind you, some are more than capable of beating the best, but only on their day.

Rio de Janeiro

(Estdio do Maracan)






(Arena Pantanal)




(Arena Fonte Nova)





Group F




2014 will see the 20th edition of the FIFA World Cup, a tournament which started way back in 1930. Germany too are right up there as favorites. They are ranked 3rd, and not without reason.

Outside Chance

Netherlands, England, and France are three teams who have the potential to win the most coveted trophy in soccer, but more often than not falter just before the final hurdle. Cristiano Ronaldo is currently the best footballer in the world, and he will be more than keen to take his team right through the tournament and make champions out of them. They are the defending champions, besides also winning the Euro championshipsthe only team to achieve this feat. Let’s have a look at where the matches are being held, the 8 different groups, and the top contenders for the coveted title of FIFA World Champions 2014.

Group E


4. They have won the most titles till date, but the main factor in their favor this time is home advantage.




(Arena Amaznia)



Group H

Group D

Group B




(Arena Pernambuco)



Group G








(Arena das Dunas)



So, who do you think will win the World Cup? Vote for your favorite team in the poll below.




(Estdio Castelo)



So Paulo

(Arena Corinthians)




2014 World Cup Favorites

(12 Host Cities, 32 Participating Nations, 64 Matches)




(Estdio Nacional Man Garrincha)



Copa do Mundo da FIFA Brasil 2014

Punching Bags

Without naming the rest, let’s face it, they hardly stand a chance of winning the World Cup. In short, they’ll be unnoticed at the start, but make their presence felt more and more as the tournament progresses. Football, also known as soccer, is the most popular sport on the planet, with a fan base of 3.5+ billion people worldwide. They have won 3 World Cups, ranked 2nd, and going by their current form, they look like the team to beat. Spain has as good a chance for 2 very good reasons. And then there is Argentina, who have won this tournament twice. The Dark Horse

No one might give them much of a chance, but Portugal is definitely a dark horse capable of pulling off the unexpected. Nevertheless, keep an eye on them too throughout the tournament

ESPN Streak for the Cash Strategy

Currently, prize for having the longest streak of the month can net a prize of $50,000 plus bonuses of up to $550,000. Below are some tips for people just starting out.

Tip #1: Just Have Fun

Crazy concept right? How can you actually have fun when you’re trying to make money online by picking sports and winning $50,000?!?! That’s some serious dough and you have to be dedicated, focused, and forget about picking games and sports that you enjoy because if you enjoy it, you have no chance (kind of like making money on HubPages!). During one of my longer streaks, I actually watched a soccer match that was on TV because I had picked one of the teams to win by 2 goals. Pick games that you’ll actually watch, even if you’re not sure of who will win the prop. Streak for the Cash is about getting involved in sports that you don’t normally watch and getting to know teams other than your favorites. You can take your picks seriously, but also make sure that you’re having fun along the way.

I have played Streak for the Cash on and off for the last few years, starting back when the top prize was $1,000,000 and the contest went for months at a time. To win the big prize, you will have to get lucky and make some gutsy picks to put together a winning streak.

Everyone wants to win the cash, but only one person out of the thousands that play this game everyday will walk away with the paycheck. Like with all sports betting, going with the percentages does not always work out, so go with your gut and take a few risks. I’m from the United States, so soccer is not something that I normally watch but I really got into the game and enjoyed it. After you hit double digits, each game starts to mean a lot and makes it very exciting to watch the games that you pick, even though you are still less than halfway to the overall goal. .

Tip #2: Research

Every prop that shows up on Streak for the Cash has its own message board where hundreds of people chat about the prop. The longest streak that I’ve had was 14 wins. This is enough incentive for just about anyone to sign up for an ESPN account and start making picks. An average winning streak for the month has been anywhere between 25 and 32 correct picks in a row.

But seriously…have fun. Go with your heart if your home team shows up on the list and cheer even louder than normal. Keep in mind that this game is a competition and some people may be trying to lead you astray by posting false information (or they may just be wrong). Also, the person who makes the most correct picks during the month receives a prize of $2,500. I’m a college basketball fan, but generally only watch my two or three favorite teams…but with Streak, I’ll end up watching a game on ESPN U or having gamecast running in the background at work and checking a score. In my experience, many of the regulars to these message boards are posting their legitimate picks and opinions about the games or props, so scanning through the postings before you make your pick can be helpful.

One of the main ways that I will research a pick will be to look at the game logs from each team. There can be no fun, or else you will fail and not make your $50,000.

ESPN’s Streak for the Cash is a pick’em style game where the goal is to build the longest winning streak. is a great resource for looking into statistics and trends and you can also search the internet for game previews and predictions by the experts. For example, if college basketball team A is 5-0 at home against ranked opponents and they are playing a ranked opponent at home, that information will influence my decision on the prop

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In a game with 9 million subscribers one may think it is impossible to stand out from the crowd or to be recognized for some unique talent, whether for …. This Premier League title will be Mourinhos eighth league …. extremely active! 5.The hardware and software together are quite expensive, which can be a challenge when balancing what you want to spend your money on.

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MAIN ADVANTAGES OF PAY PER HEAD SOFTWARE There are many different advantages of utilizing pay per head services for modern bookmaking software. Roulette odds clearly define …. Jenkins” you might find yourself dressed in neon pink, with a gigantic spoon as a weapon while you spam your victims with “say my name bitch”.

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Roulette Odds and Betting By Simon Kettle

Everyone goes gaga over the roulette wheel and the roulette table but the sensible players always lay stress on roulette odds. But, what are they exactly? Can you really increase your winning odds …. Their maximum payout may be millions of dollars but the possibility of winning the big prize is around 1 in 1,750,000.

Online Bridge and Its Variant Casino Card Games By Simon Kettle

For card game fans, bridge is more than a game. point target is considered short game and longer games can go up to 500 points. offensive players scheduled to play against bad defensive teams. mind and figuring out what he or she likes and doesn’t like to do. why, it is the mistake to think that after the series of unsuccessful spins the following spin can be the winning or losing one under some conditions.

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Don’t make the common mistake to let the “pay per head” fee be the only factor when choosing your next bookie software provider. as Holland rule, Jacoby rule and Crawford rule. All these steps when looking forward your next bookie software provider will help you to take the best decision possible.

Big Match Preview: The Manchester Derby By Mikel Pole

Mark your calendars for one of the biggest matches of the Premier League season

And even though Gretzky’s Twitter account no longer exists, you can still find many of the others out there in cyberspace.

OK, so that something was sending out racy photos of herself and her friends via Twitter, but her name was out there nonetheless.

Photo: An image from Paulina Gretzky’s now-defunct Twitter account. The 22-year-old Gretzky has shut down her Twitter feed — which had more than 24,000 followers — apparently after a chat with her father.

You can see possibly the least suggestive of all her photos above. ALSO:

Can we believe a word Urban Meyer says?

Just know that the Great One does not approve.

Paulina Gretzky, the 22-year-old daughter of hockey great Wayne Gretzky, has shut down her popular Twitter account, which featured racy photos of the struggling model/singer/actress

Poor Paulina Gretzky. Happy Holidays!!! xoxo.”

But now it looks like Dad has stepped in and ruined everything. The struggling model/singer/actress finally was becoming known for something other than being the daughter of legendary hockey star Wayne Gretzky.

Or maybe he was just being a good father and talked some sense into his daughter, who had been posting shots of herself in tight tops, short skirts and provocative poses for the world to see.

– Chuck Schilken

Justin Combs, Diddy’s son, commits to UCLA football

Who should be the next football coach at UCLA?

Some suggest that the move might have something to do with reports that Gretzky’s father may be involved in a potential purchase of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Gretzky said in one of her last posts: “Having a nice sit down dinner with my dad about social media..haha.” Then came her final tweet on Saturday: “Taking a break from Twitter for a bit. Credit: Twitter / The Chive / New England Sports Network

Mexican president signs money laundering law

It has acted outside of all political considerations or any short-term interests,” he said.

In Mexico, authorities fined HSBC 379 million pesos ($27.6 million) for reporting too late almost 2,000 unusual operations and omitting another 39, presumably related to money laundering, and for administrative failures detected between 2007 and 2008.

Mexican President Felipe Calderon signed into law Tuesday a new statute dealing with money laundering designed to halt the flow of the $12 billion-$13 billion that, according to legislative estimates, are moved in the country illegally every year.

The law also bans cash transactions in certain real estate operations with a value higher than 1 million Mexican pesos (about $77,519) or in the buying and selling of vehicles worth more than 200,000 pesos ($15,504).

In the case of jewelry, precious metals, watches, gemstones and works of art, cash payments are restricted to prices below 300,000 pesos (about $23,256).

Calderon said that during his term in office, Mexico “has waged an unprecedented war in favor of legality, justice and freedoms” of which these regulations are a part.

The law comes a few months after a report by the U.S. Senate said that in 2007 and 2008 the Mexican affiliate of the HSBC group introduced $7 billion dollars in cash into the financial system of that country without considering the source or characteristics of the transactions.

“The government has acted strongly because that is its duty. EFE

The federal law for the prevention and identification of operations with funds from illicit sources will enable this to be done through several new mechanisms, including a special unit to fight money laundering that will be part of the Deputy Attorney General’s Office of Specialized Organized Crime Investigations, or Siedo, an agency of the federal Attorney General’s Office, he said.

For his part, Finance Secretary Jose Antonio Meade said that with the new law against money laundering, Mexico will “improve its international rating with the Financial Action Task Force.”

The law also establishes a limit on cash transactions and those linked to gambling, contests and lotteries, as well as the issuing of, or trading in, non-bank credit cards and travelers checks.

In a ceremony at the presidential residence, Calderon, who leaves office in December, said it was “essential to fight organized crime, particularly crime that is organized multinationally, in the very heart of its activities – in the flow of money that gives it the power to corrupt authorities, to intimidate citizens and to expand its illicit activities.”

He said that when he became president in December 2006, there was a “systemic deterioration” that has been reversed as institutions have been transformed.

The new law “adopts the most advanced international criteria in the world of money laundering,” Calderon said, vowing that these efforts would be maintained.

Your guide to the Aussie gambling game that’s legal once a year

Seems simple enough, but it’s an afternoon’s worth of amusement if played correctly. two up

If you happen to be in Australia on Anzac Day, don’t be intimidated by the raucous noises coming from almost every pub.

It’s as simple as announcing whether you’re betting on heads or tails, and how much cash you’re willing to put up. An odd combination, sure, but it is what it is.

It quickly gained popularity among those serving in World War I, with diggers the Aussie word for soldiers returning to continue playing the game at home, albeit illegally. The “ring-keeper” calls “come in spinner” to signal the coins are to be tossed into the air by another person, who is called the “spinner.”

So, what if you want to gamble? You’ll need to find another person around the ring who will bet with you.

There’s sure to be a round of two-up taking place inside.A gambling game only legally allowed to be played in publicon April 25, a day of remembrance for all those who served in war, two-up is a favourite of locals who head to veteran parades in the morning and then to the pub in the afternoon. One coin on heads and one coin on tails called “odds” or “one them” means there is a replay and the coins are tossed again. If you like drunk antics, that is.

It’s illegal if the venue takes any profit from the game or if it charges an entry fee though, so keep that in mind. And, of course, you’ll need to be over 18, kid.

How do you play it?

Think of two-up as a slightly more complex version of heads or tails.. Make sure to check up on your venue’s rules first, to keep everyone happy.

Where can I play it?

Many pubs will advertise they’ve got the “biggest” two-up game in the business, but in reality, most pubs on Anzac Day will have a game organised, as well as Returned Services League clubs and sporting venues around the country.

If you’re a tourist or have just never had the opportunity to have a go before, don’t worry, we’ve got your back. It gradually became a government-sanctioned part of Anzac Day celebrations, played by ex-servicemen and civilians alike.

Bigger games are arguably better, thanks to the opportunity for people watching. It is gambling after all, and losing a whole lot of money ain’t fun.

Have something to add to this story? Share it in the comments.

To win, both coins need to land on heads, or both on tails. Same if the coins fall outside the ring.

Guess heads or tails correctly, and you take the other person’s money. Make sure you study up before you throw your money in the ring.

When did it start?

Two-up’s actual origins are unknown, but the game is thought to have spread in Australia’s goldfields around the 1850s, according to ABC News.

Two coins are placed tails up on a flat board called a “kip” or a paddle, while those eager to bet form a ring. The person you’re betting against needs to bet the same amount as you, but on the opposite result.

Just remember to play responsibly

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